May 2, 2008...11:41 am
About last night
“Life ain’t nothing but a blending up of all the ups and downs”
Drive by Truckers, Carl Perkins’ Cadillac
I didn’t stay up to watch the results programme last night. It’s pretty much a pointless show when half the councils are declaring the next day and the Mayoral vote isn’t announced until the following afternoon. It felt very strange going to bed on an election night at a normal hour, not poring over results as they trickle in.
The benefit of waiting until the next morning to look at the results is that you’ve already got some perspective on it. Reading Nick Robinson’s comments you can’t help but feel that this is the work of a man who has spent the last 24 hours being frantically briefed, and is running on adrenalin and espresso. Poor chap should get some sleep.
So what do I, fully rested and on my lunch break, make of the election results?
The first thing that jumps out is Wales. As I write, a quarter of our total national loss of Councillors* comes from Torfaen, Flintshire, Merthyr and Blanaeu Gwent alone, almost entirely to independents in each case. Results elsewhere in Wales were also pretty poor, (with the exception of Neath and Anglesey) I suspect this alone is responsible for the disproportionate decline in Labour’s vote in it’s heartlands that the BBC has commented on.
I don’t know enough about Welsh politics to reach an informed opinion, but my suspicion is that the party is paying the price for a combination of Wales assembly unpopularity, the Plaid/Labour alliance and local complacency (Labour were similarly humiliated in Rhondda Cynon taff four years ago, and the growth of independents in the valleys seems to indicate that residents are using them to attack local party complacency, as Rhondda stayed safe labour in the General Election)
The next point to make is that Wales aside, the changes over 2004 are not enormous. This isn’t saying much because the 2004 elections were pretty awful. That said the changes seem to be incremental rather than enormous. This is counter-intuitive, because we tend to focus on headline results and particular bad results like Southampton, but as you go through the council by council list, you see that we tend to be talking about changes of a councillor here, and a councillor there, not landslide changes. Stevenage we lose two, Basildon one, Lincoln one, for example. These are all key seats. (There are exceptions, of which more later)
Third. Don’t get too wild about Southern discomfort theories. While Southampton was disappointing and it looks like Reading will be too, there are some interesting exceptions that need to be looked at. Oxford, Ipswich, Hastings and Colchester (!) all showed Labour gains, while places like Swindon, Norwich and Worcester didn’t change at all.
Fourth, there are places where the Tories are making strong progress. You see this especially in places that were 2005 gains (or they came very close) around London. Reading, Peterbrough, Welwyn Hatfield and Harlow all see either strong growth or retention of total dominance. This isn’t a total rule though - see Stevenage, Basildon, Thurrock for examples of Labour doing OK in slightly stronger areas. Seems that when Labour loses MPs and Tories gain them, the following council results are pretty bad. Which makes sense really.
There are also individual councils where the Tories have done particularly well- Southampton, Redditch, Sunderland. (The reporting on this last tilts me- there’s always been a decent Tory vote in the Sunderland suburbs, just as there used to be in Jesmond, Westerhope and Gosforth in Newcastle before the Lib Dems took it all. Not everyone in the North-east was a miner.)
There are exceptions everywhere. Liverpool, Bolton and Pendle all showed Labour growth in the Northwest, while Burnley looks like a bad result. Losing Wolverhampton and Redditch was disappointing in the West Midlands, but the Tories lost Coventry and Walsall stayed static.
Overall, a pretty bad set of results, no doubt. We’ve got a lot to do. Yet there’s a lot more here than the headlines will scream. Organisation clearly matters, so does the reputation of the local council. I’d be focused on reconnecting the party in Wales and thinking carefully about the M25 band of marginals and how we can support them. (There’s a similar band of marginals around Birmingham too, and the same trends seem to be evident).
Other than that, the Government shouldn’t panic. The key thing is to reconnect with peoples values and aspirations, and make sure people stay in jobs and decent homes and have good schools and hospitals to go to. The rest is pretty much froth.
* 8 in BG, 9 in Merthyr, 13 in Flintshire, 16 in Torfaen for a total of 46/166. This proportion will decline as the day goes on and more results are announced, obviously.
20 Comments
May 2, 2008 at 12:23 pm
you’re telling me you’ve got a lot to do.
This is what you said above.
The key thing is to reconnect with peoples values and aspirations.
That’ll be the day.
Enjoy 20 years in opposition.
May 2, 2008 at 1:31 pm
You know, I really don’t understand the point of your comment. It’s neither informative, intelligent nor illuminating.
You’d have added more useful content by banging your head against your keyboard.
May 2, 2008 at 1:59 pm
Local divisions rather than local complacency in a lot of places (the sheer number of “independents” in Blaenau Gwent (the extreme example that sheds light on the rest) that used to be Labour is both astonishing and a little distressing). What’s needed isn’t just re-connecting with the vote, but healing the sharp divisions that have come to the fore in recent years (and that’s easier said than done). Personally I’m all for re-admitting, with open arms (and everything else that might be needed), people by the hundred and radically altering the way the party is run here, but I’m just some random fool with no say in anything.
Up here (where our woes are but a sideshow. The big story is the shocking (yet not surprising) defeat of Dafydd Iwan…
we lost quite a few seats from a small base; several were extremely marginal in 2004, an incumbent retired and we didn’t field a candidate in his ward, another (with a big personal vote) defected to Plaid in 2005 and another one tragically died a few weeks ago (we’ll probably lose the by-election to Llais Gwynedd. But then I’m a pessimist). I suspect that you could say things like that of most other places in Wales, remember that, unlike you, we didn’t have council elections in 2006 and 2007.
May 2, 2008 at 3:33 pm
If you buy me a beer and can give you chapter and verse on Wales… I wrote the memo…
May 2, 2008 at 4:06 pm
Pregthwr- It’s a deal! Would be really interested in that.
ps, don’t take the anti BBC comments over at PBetting.com to heart. Think some of them would only be satisfied if Nick Robinson promised to decapitate the PM live on air. With that, I’m off to the gym!
May 2, 2008 at 9:20 pm
The main points are the confirmation that the Opinion Polls are not only right but have underestimated the unpopularity of Brown. The Conservative Party were starting from a high point as you know.and by omitting these axioms your details are just free floating scraps .
I `m rather disappointed to see this Hopi . I suppose it would suit me if the Labour Party did continue this habit of deny and obfuscate but you always gave me the impression of someone who was aware of the danger of sulking in a disappearingly small tent . You will note the allusion to the Iliad . A thorough knowledge of the Classics is of course essential in any politician and I am trying to cultivate it .
Hooray for Boris ,god knows what you saw in Livingstone , he despises your Partyas you will soon read in his books .
May 2, 2008 at 10:51 pm
I think in Wales the Assembly government is in fact much more popular than the Westminster one - and I think these results would have been worse had Peter Hain still been in place (he was really badly hated).
What happened was I think more likely a storm over:
1) Corrupt (complacent if you prefer it) local councils (Valleys were notorious for them)
2) Dissatisfaction with the Brown government brought to a head by the confusion over this 10p tax rate
3) Crucially, a run-down and inefficient organisation
I think it unlikely that 3) will be resolved because there are no serious figures in Labour to succeed Rhodri Morgan (who doesn’t look well to me - maybe that was another problem) - 2) is something only Brown can sort out and as for 1) - look how long it’s taken the Tories to shake off the tag of corruption from the 1980s.
Plaid I think were a negligible factor for Labour - not so negligible for them (without the One Wales government, I’m convinced they would have taken Ceredigion and held Gwynedd)
May 3, 2008 at 7:03 am
“You will note the allusion to the Iliad . A thorough knowledge of the Classics is of course essential in any politician and I am trying to cultivate it”.
So clever.
May 3, 2008 at 12:48 pm
Newmania, well considering that the guy who sulked in his tent was the great hero who subsequently came out and won a great victory overy his proud enemy, i reckon you might need to work a little more on your classical allusions!
May 3, 2008 at 3:15 pm
He’d have to be fully literate for that!
May 4, 2008 at 3:29 am
>The next point to make is that Wales aside, the changes over 2004 are not enormous.
I think you’re off beam with that statement, Hopi.
The total seat loss in Wales was 122 (25%). The total loss in England was 332-122=210. Those are BBC figures, as opposed to the Sky ones which are worse (as opposed to Sky who said 434 losses - aiui down to complications from Council Abolitions).
210 in just England is worse than the suggested “disaster” scenario of 200 loses for England and Wales together. That doesn’t look like “not enormous” changes in England to me.
On a political level, my thoughts are:
1 - I hope that the resurgence of Independents represents a renewal of LOCAL politics.
2 - “Reconnecting with peoples values and aspirations” is on a level of rearranging deckchairs - that won’t wash any more than “listening” will. On listening, they just don’t do it - or they say they do, then do their previous thing anyway. AIUI, Tony Blair’s reforms saw to that inside the party, and we have ample evidence of lack of listening outside (e.g., ignored warnings about data security).
3 - The top agenda for me is Civil Liberties which have been undermined - from RIPA through to detention without trial. Imo they have just lost the democratic plot in this area, and must simply be stopped.
I really don’t see that they have anywhere else to go.
My thoughts.
May 4, 2008 at 6:13 am
Matt,
on hte figures- I think there’s no doubt that the figures in Wales were what dragged the vote share down. To set against your point about the council seats, I’d point out that the London assemly showed an increase in the Labour vote. Yes we lost council seats, and there were some particularly bad results (esp in places where tories won in 05 and in Soton and burnley) but there were also places where we gained ground.
On the “what now” stuff, I mean this in the nicest possible way, and I’m about to accuse you of a sin that I’m of guilty as anyone else of committing, but you’re doing what the vast majority of MPs and pundits littering the airwaves are doing- confusing things you’d like to see happen with things that matter to peoples voting intentions.
If you look at the research the three bissest issues for people at the moment are Crime, immigration and the economy. Civil liberties, while important to opinion formers simply don’t register. They might still be important, thats a seperate argument, but to argue that they’d win back votes in reading, or southampton, or harlow or welwyn hatfield is just not realistic.
I make the same point to people who blame 10p, btw. Since we announced that policy Labours been at 28 in the polls, 40 in the polls and 28 again. It’s hard to see how that squares with the idwa the policy is causing unpopularit now (coverage of labour infighting and seeming total confusion on policy is however, a likely cause, and the cabinet should take their share of the blame for that)
May 4, 2008 at 8:33 am
Yes Hopi I agree . Its a simple matter of becoming the Conservative Party really . Labour lost control of the border , lied about crime and royally screwed up the economy notably by getting us so into debt that there no where to turn except to stealth taxes when revenues plunge as they are doing, they have made it worse by treating everyone like idiots attempting to hide it .This is the real,story
In fact its not so much becoming the Conservative Party as going back in time and being the Conservative Party for the period of Brown`s profligate time in charge of the “project”.As I say its the overall share that counts , the turnout was no worse than usual and large in London so there is no vote sitting on its hands as the left pretend . Lessons as fundamental as the New Labour revision n have to be learnt .
There is no place for big state high tax government , the Labour Party will have to cleave closer to the collection of luxury issues that define them in their own minds as Nice to our “Nasty” ( Environment women’s rights , that sort of thing ). I see a sort of Liberal style coalition with more in common with US Democrats than Old Labour .The alternative is to swing left and be finished as a Party of Government
The problem you have now is that the only real strategy is either a deal with the Lib Dems or getting rid of Brown. Either will look dreadful at this stage and an attempt to impose PR from a losing position will provoke revolution. Well I at least would assist in picketing the HOP. The removal of Brown which I think is about 50/50 is tricky as the Labour Party will have to turn smartly from telling us he is wonderful to blaming everything on him. ,If I was Milliband I would wait for it to drop into my lap after the carnage .The left are saying this is due to Blairism and the Conservatives( I promise you) are really really hoping that someone agrees . If you avoid this debate again the problem will continue
May 4, 2008 at 11:54 am
“1 - I hope that the resurgence of Independents represents a renewal of LOCAL politics.”
A lot of the successful independents in Wales are former Labour members who fell out (at various points over the past few years) with their local parties. Blaenau Gwent is the extreme example but it is *not* an isolated case.
May 4, 2008 at 3:30 pm
>but you’re doing what the vast majority of MPs and pundits littering the airwaves are doing confusing things you’d like to see happen with things that matter to peoples voting intentions.
I know. And it hurts . I have that from the horses mouth: my barber said of the DNA database “well, it’s going to happen anyway - what can I do”. Thoroughly depressing response.
That’s why I said “my” thoughts.
>Civil liberties, while important to opinion formers simply don’t register. They might still be important, thats a seperate argument, but to argue that they’d win back votes in reading, or southampton, or harlow or welwyn hatfield is just not realistic.
I’d agree with you on the “win back votes” point - in the short term. But I think that circumstances can change. I’d make 2 points: a million little injustices will affect a lot of people eventually to the extent that they will care, and two of your top 3 relate to the civil liberties point directly. It’s more stratregic than tactical, but istm that in the end it does make a difference.
On the 10p tax rate, I’d disagree with your interpretation. I’d suggest that one reasons for the Gord’s unpopularity is that people eventually saw past the presentation; and now that he’s done precisely the same this year (car tax). As I see it, that is simply the approach he uses - with a 10 year record, so there’s not really a lot that can be done to change it - apart from to throw him/them overboard.
Thanks for your reply.
May 4, 2008 at 3:56 pm
Newmania, speaking as a Lib Dem and a thoroughgoing liberal, I’m utterly against any deal with Labour. They took us for a ride before 1997 and then lied and lied again. They’ve never done anything liberal. They may not be economically socialist, but their authoritarianism and we-know-best attitude remains.
No liberal would ever have entertained the idea of all the restrictions Blair and Brown have placed on our civil liberties. I don’t believe Clegg will make such a deal, and I hopw to God he doesn’t.
PS-
Have an outstanding Bank Holiday. Get on the drink
May 4, 2008 at 5:50 pm
Hopi,
Wales is much more complicated than anyone in the press has described. Let me give you some examples from Torfaen. Of those seats lost, three were in Blaenavon, where the unpopular l of the local swimming pool almost guaranteed that irrespective of the national situation, seats would be lost.
In another ward the unpopular decision to give planning eprmission for a recycling plant in a ward previously blighted by a notorious incinerator guaranteed another three seats would go.
Add in a highly personal campaign in one ward against a sitting councillor with leaflets being circulated without imprint attacking allowances and councillors personalities and you have another seatgone.
There’s a definite decline in party loyalties in Torfaen. Wards that were solid Labour are evidencing plump voting by voters splitting their vote and refusing to vote the full party ticket.
There’s anopther point though. The restrictions on local government spending to fund assembly programmes and the high cost of keeping small unitaries in business have meant that councils are under real pressure, and have disappointed many of their constituents. Your poster above who uses the corruption word is way off beam, but if a Labour First Minister is on BBC Wales every night telling the world that councils have got enough money, and your local council is telling you it hasn’t, who do you believe? Add in the meddlesome antics of some AMs (the most under employed politicians in the UK) and you have a Labour Party which can’t expect support from the voters when it can’t agree amongst itself.
May 4, 2008 at 11:06 pm
Obviously where there were all outs the knee jerk on the 10p tax and economic angst had up to three times the effect.
A very good reason to support rolling elections rather than regular all outs IMO.
May 5, 2008 at 11:41 am
“Results elsewhere in Wales were also pretty poor, (with the exception of Neath and Anglesey)”
and Bridgend
(not that it changes your main point)
May 5, 2008 at 12:14 pm
Being involved heavily in Welsh politics at the moment (albeit possibly too involved to take an objectionable look) I would have to disagree with your comment on unpopularity of the assembly.
Rhodri Morgan himself has put it down national events and I am inclined to agree. The 10p tax rate issue would of hit harder in Wales than in the rest of the Britain.
At least most of the seats went to independents than the Tories and if we sort ourselves out nationally then the votes will come back to us.
http://samknight4labour.blogspot.com
Leave a Reply