How not to plot…

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A few weeks ago, a wise commenter at politcalbetting.com said, apropos of the reaction of MPs to the expenses scandal that “it was remarkable how bad many MPs were at being politicians”.

Well, they’re no better at being plotters. To be successful, a coup needs to be unexpected, quick, targetted, clear in purpose, well timed and have a real understanding of the powerbase and rules they are operating against.

On that basis, the Anti-Brown plotters have proven themselves utterly incompetent.  They’ve failed every one of those tests. For a moment, I want you to forget my own view of the issues, and just look at the tactics and strategies we’ve seen over the last couple of weeks.

First, the anti-Brown briefing went on for so long that everyone was aware of it. It’s important for a secret plot to stay secret. Why? Because when anti-Brown MPs briefed journalists they had 100 possible suporters and then MPs said they’d not even been approached, you could tell someone had been talking out of their hat. Worse, anyone tempted to agree with the plotters could sense it was talk, not action and it gave those loyal to the PM time to respond.

Second, rather than a sharp strike, things have dragged on and on. If Hazel Blears, Caroline Flint, James Purnell, Beverley Hughes and Jane Kennedy had resigned simultaenously and with a co-ordinated message, there would have been shockwaves. But it happened by drib and drabs, so became utterly ridiculous.

Third, this dribs and drabs aproach has meant the “plot” seemed to be aimless and without a clear purpose. Was there to be a Cabinet revolt, a secret email, a stalking horse or a peasants rebellion? No-one knew.  Was there even a plot, rather than a rumour of a plot?  I’m still not sure.

Fourth, it was appallingly badly timed.  To destabilise Gordon Brown by briefing Jacqui Smith’s departure and then for Hazel Blear’s to resign before the elections made the fortunes of Labour activists the collatarel damage. That made the anti-Brownites appear selfish, not selfless.

On top of all that the plotters committed the worst political sin of all – they were unrealistic.

Not once, in any conversation I’ve had with someone unhappy with Gordon Brown’s leadership did they give any sense of how they were going to achieve what it was they set out to do.

Repeatedly, people talked of what they would like to happen – Gordon to step down, a secret ballot of the PLP, other people to act, a deputation of men in suits or some other Deus ex machina. Well, what you’d like to happen isn’t good enough. You have to have a plan, one that makes sense within the topography you’re operating in.

That lack of a credible plan doomed plotters to failure.

Repeatedly, people ignored the reality of the political situation. Blinded by their dislike of the PM, those who wished to overthrow him ignored the rules of the party, ignored the power balance in the party, ignored what the impact of a leadership election would be on electoral prospects and how the wider party would react to that.

Worse, they ignored the fact that there beyond a dislike of Gordon Brown there was no common agenda between the ultra-Blairites and the left, so that the left would have no interest in deposing Gordon Brown to put in place a Labour leader who could keep the left in a box well after the next election.

Compare and contrast Ken Livingstone’s coup against Andrew McIntosh leader of the GLC in 1981.  Not a whisper before the elections, then a sudden, sharp strike that was tightly organised and utterly focussed on a personal and ideological agenda. There was a sudden vote, then bang, it was over.

By comparison, MPs have acted like rank amateurs.

Maybe I’ll be proved wrong tonight.  But I don’t think so.

Worst. Plot. Ever.

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